Ukraine Conflict

Introduction and Actors in the Conflict:

One of the very current crisis in the world today is the Crimean conflict: should Crimea be annexed by Russia or should it stay a part of Ukraine? The history of Russia, Ukraine and Crimea is very complex because it is built on centuries of common culture and shared history, as well as unique regional traits as Ukraine was a part of the Soviet Union. The Ukraine crisis has its roots in the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991 when Ukraine became an independent state. A country of profound ethnic and cultural divisions, Ukraine comprises a more ethnic Russian population in the East and a more ethnic Ukrainian population in the West. Crimea, a peninsula on Ukraine's Black Sea coast, is located in the East of Ukraine and is a focus of pro-Russian sentiments.  Crimea has 2.3 million people, a majority of whom identify themselves as ethnic Russians which means that they speak Russian.Ethnic Ukrainians made up 24% of the population in Crimea according to the 2001 census, compared with 58% Russians and 12% Tatars. The ethnicities are mostly marked by the language they speak and often by their origin or birthplace of their grandparents. (Said, 2014)

Role of Governments:

The conflict explicitly began when Victor Yanukovych, president of Ukraine till February 2014, postponed the signing of a treaty which would result in greater economic collaboration with the European Union andsigned a treaty with Russia instead. This was not just a trade agreement, but also a political agreement that committed Ukraine to adhere to definite European values and principles. The public came to the streets and approximately 800,000 protesters took part in the 2014 Ukrainian Revolution and is specifically called “Euromaidan”. According to Ukrainian reports, civil unrest and violent clash between the public and government between January and February 2014 resulted in the deaths of 103 people and 1419 injured.As tensions rose, the President of Ukraine, Victor Yanukovych, fled Ukraine and the Ukrainian parliament officially deposed him and the interim government came into being with Oleksandr Turchynov as President. The deteriorating political situation after the Euromaidan Protests and riots allowed Russian president Vladimir Putin to conclude that ethnic Russians were at risk and there was a need to protect them. (Plokhy, 2014)

International Actors:

The Russian Federation condemned the interim government as a result of a coup d’état, brought about by the collective efforts of the United States of America and the European Union. Since Russia perceived the interim government as illegitimate and unlawful, it categorically rejected its legitimacy and as a result declined to negotiate with it in the Crimean crisis. On the other hand, both the United States of America and the European Union have supported pro-democracy NGOs and civil society organizations in Ukraine. The west, especially USA, has been the preacher of democracy and is supporting Ukraine in this crisis and NATO discourage Russia from annexing Crimea. Europe cannot oppose Russia directly because Europe is highly dependent on Russia economically, with Russia being one of its major exporting markets but also its most significant supplier of gas. Not much can be expected from Security Council of the UN, as with Russia being a permanent member with veto-rights, no resolution will pass. The Russian annexation of the Crimea creates new security issues for places like Abkhazia and South Ossetia which are disputed territories. Similarly,neighboring countries that also consist of Russian majorities like Northern regions of Kazakhstan might turn out to be new candidates. In short, there are few other countries involved in this conflict and many countries can get effected as a result of this crisis. (Wassenberg, 2014)  

Stakes of the Conflict and its History

Esman has given various theories about ethnic conflicts which can be explained, and using this framework some of the theories behind the nature of this conflict can also be validated.There are three types of ways for political action according to Esman: dominate the government or autonomy (independence) orinclusion. In the case of Ukraine, the Crimean peninsula – previously under the administration of Ukraine – became a federal subject of the Russian Federation as a result of the Crimean Status Referendum held by the legislature of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the local government of Sevastopol in February 2014. The Autonomous Republic of Crimea voted with a 96.8% majority to join Russia. Thereafter, the Russian Federation facilitated the accession of Crimea into Russia, bringing the peninsula under her effective administration.

The means by which the accession of Crimea was achieved includes a military intrusion into Crimea by pro-Russian forces and the subsequent capture of the Crimean parliament. The way the Russian Federation presented their views with regards to Crimea is that Sevastopol joined together to gain independence and subsequently approached the Russian Federation and expressed a mutual desire for accession. However, Ukraine does not share the views of the Russian Federation and disputes the legitimacy of the accession; moreover, Ukraine does not recognize the independence of Crimea or Sevastopol. As of July 2014, 100 members of the United Nations do not recognize the status of Crimea as a federal subject of the Russian Federation. As discussed, it is very complex to decide whether one should stand in the shoes of Russia or Ukraine to decide the political action. From Russian narrative, Crimea wanted independence while from Ukraine perspective, Crimea wants inclusion into Ukraine. (Fisher, 2013)

Esman pointed out three goals of ethnic conflicts which include economic, cultural and political reasons. When we consider the case of Crimea, I believe that all the three goals are present in the conflict. It is very challenging to prioritize the goals which the conflicts possess, but I think that political goal is the top purpose of the conflict followed by economic and then the cultural goal. The political goal of Sevastopol was upheld, who with the assistance of the Russian federation managed to hold a referendum and move towards accession of Russia after the eventual independence. While on the other hand, Ukraine along with the Western power is trying to get back Crimea as it is very important part of the country politically and geographically. Economically, Crimea is grooming as a great place for tourism and has many natural resources which attracts both Russia and Ukraine. The Russian claim of protecting Russian-ethnic people in Crimea who speak Russian has the culture goals which they have been sharing for centuries. These were the reasons that army was also involved in this crisis and on March 5^{th 2014}, 6,000 Ukrainian military personnel desolated from the Ukrainian Armed Forces and declared their combat readiness to protect the Crimean people.  While on April 17^{th 2014}, President Vladimir Putin in an official statement affirmed the involvement of Russian servicemen in occupying Crimea. These were the reasons that this conflict has been violent at times with many people getting killed and thousands getting injured. If remained unsolved, this issue can cause in many such other brutality and killings. (Cecire, 2014)

Bibliography
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http://carnegieendowment.org/2015/03/18/broken-ukraine/i4jm
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